Cease Fire!!!

So we finally see a ceasefire in southern Lebanon, though this does not mean that the fighting has actually stopped. From the sounds of this, this ceasefire has created a little mess on the ground. People are trying to get back to their homes in the south, but Israel is warning them that is it not yet safe to do so. Considering that many TV stations and cellphone towers have been hit, I wonder how they are getting this information to civilians. I have seen how quickly rumors spread in situations like this, and how desparate people are hard to reason with, even when you are trying to convince them to do something for their own good. It is good news to see that people are returning to their homes, even though the fighting continues, and Israel has said it will continue fighting Hezbollah. It will be interesting to see how this ceasefire develops. As I watch CNN, I notice that they are focusing on people moving back to their homes in southern Lebanon, but they are not discussing that many will consider this a victory for Hezbollah. The Israeli PM told the Knesset that this offensive weakened Hezbollah and pushed them away from the border - in other words, Olmert claims that his objectives were achieved. But at the same time, Hezbollah will claim a victory over the regional superpower. Afterall, Hezbollah did manage to resist Israel. Additionally, Hezbollah has gained broader ideological support through its military actions and through is cooperation with the peace process. As a member of the UN, Israel is obligated to follow resolutions passed by the world body (though it has had no trouble ignoring these resolutions in the past), but Hezbollah has no such obligation. Its participation in the Lebanese government appears to have put some pressure on Hezbollah's leaders to agree to the ceasefire. I will say again that time will tell what happens next. The Lebanese believe that nothing will really change - this will result in peace talks, which will fail, and then everything will return to the status quo. And it is easy to see how that could happen, how nothing really changed beyond the presense of troops in southern Lebanon, creating a buffer zone. But really, what does this do? The Palestinians are still a people without a homeland, there is still a rift within the Middle East that no one seems capable of overcoming, and people will still die in senseless violence. This feels like a chess game where the pieces only move from side to side in defensive moves, and not forward for any real gain.