Backlog of stuff to read

I have been saving articles to read online for a few weeks, and I finally decided it was time to sort through them and post the ones of interest, so here I go. This first article discusses how the Palestinian Authority will begin getting money that had been withheld after the election of Hamas. The article says that the money will bypass the Hamas government, but it is not clear to me how this will happen. Good development, nonetheless.

But to dampen the mood of optimism, a recent poll shows that only 51% of Palestinians favor a peace agreement with Israel. The article is very short and only discusses how the poll was conducted...I am supplying the link as evidence that things are not getting better. Additionally, Israel believes that Fatah, Yasir Arafat's old party, could disappear in the Gaza Strip, leading to further instability and factionalism. Not that Fatah was necessarily a force for peace and stability, but at least it has a historical precedent of working with other international powers, including Israel, which probably makes Israel extremely nervous. To add to Israel's troubles, now there is pressure within Israel for an investigation into the handling of the conflict with Lebanon, plus allegations by Amnesty International that Israel committed war crimes.

I have stated before that I think the region will only experience more problems, and it appears that others with more expertise are saying the same thing. People's Daily Online found that the Arab press largely believes that the Middle East will only experience more violence after the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire.

But rest assured my friends, our president believes that it is only a matter of time before the rest of the world realizes that this conflict has weakened Hezbollah. Never mind that everyone else thinks Hezbollah emerged stronger and proved that it could stand up to the regional hegemon and its patron, the United States. I am sure the president has some very smart people reassuring him that this will not lead to a larger regional conflict, and that the best way to undermine Hezbollah is to continue the conflict in Iraq, or something weird like that. Whatever.

When can we stop talking about Lebanon?

I should think that many wonder why such a little country (Lebanon is roughly the size of Connecticut) should create such an international stir. In a way, Lebanon is kind of the Poland of the Middle East, by which I mean it is the country that gets run over by other people's wars. Though Lebanon has experience its own civil war, that conflict was the result of external interference, not to mention its colonial history which made it into the sectarian nation that it is today. All of the above have left Lebanon weak, allowing groups like Hezbollah to flourish. I think it goes without saying that Israel's attack on Lebanon did not win it any fans in the Middle East, though Hezbollah did not win the whole-hearted support of the entire population either. From what I observed, people are saavy enough to understand just how the conflict started. (Read this article by Michael Young, editor of the Daily Star, to see his perspective on Hezbollah's standing in Lebanon.) While many people may not be too happy with Hezbollah, there is no denying that Hezbollah came out of this conflict stronger than ever. Basically, just by surviving the attack by Israel, Hezbollah proved that it is a strong military force in the region. One TV news report pointed out that on the day before the ceasefire, Hezbollah launched more rockets than any other day during the attack, proving that it still has a significant arsenal - basically, it sent a message to Israel (and to the U.S.) that it is still standing. This also sends a message to Hezbollah's financial supporters that it is a good investment - I expect that Hezbollah will not disarm, but rather will become more skilled and better equipped. Perhaps Hezbollah will have to go underground to avoid U.N. forces, but I expect that it will be around for a very long time, and that it is preparing for a larger confrontation with Israel.

It appears that the Israelis are not too happy with their government and its handling of the conflict. Obviously, none of the objectives were met - the soldiers were not returned and Hezbollah is still around. Amnesty International is accusing Israel of war crimes (I will look into this more), and Israeli reservists are protesting the handling of the war, claiming they were sent into battle without enough food and water. I fear that we are only at the beginning of a major regional conflict. Indeed, I think the signs are all there as the tensions continue to rise. Another outcome of the conflict in Lebanon has been a bolder Iran. Its proxy did well, and now we have seen that Israel isn't the invincible force that we once believed it to be. I think during the nuclear negotiations, Iran will only agree to a settlement on its own terms. I think Iran waited for the outcome of the conflict in Lebanon before it proceeded with the nuclear negotiations so that it had a clearer picture of what it could get away with.

Sobering Analysis

I realize that I rely heavily on the New York Times for articles, but this one was actually written by an editor for The Daily Star in Beirut. I find his analysis of the last 20 years of Lebanese politics very clarifying, though I advise you to read to the very end where the he warns that another civil war could break out. Any comments?

Cease Fire!!!

So we finally see a ceasefire in southern Lebanon, though this does not mean that the fighting has actually stopped. From the sounds of this, this ceasefire has created a little mess on the ground. People are trying to get back to their homes in the south, but Israel is warning them that is it not yet safe to do so. Considering that many TV stations and cellphone towers have been hit, I wonder how they are getting this information to civilians. I have seen how quickly rumors spread in situations like this, and how desparate people are hard to reason with, even when you are trying to convince them to do something for their own good. It is good news to see that people are returning to their homes, even though the fighting continues, and Israel has said it will continue fighting Hezbollah. It will be interesting to see how this ceasefire develops. As I watch CNN, I notice that they are focusing on people moving back to their homes in southern Lebanon, but they are not discussing that many will consider this a victory for Hezbollah. The Israeli PM told the Knesset that this offensive weakened Hezbollah and pushed them away from the border - in other words, Olmert claims that his objectives were achieved. But at the same time, Hezbollah will claim a victory over the regional superpower. Afterall, Hezbollah did manage to resist Israel. Additionally, Hezbollah has gained broader ideological support through its military actions and through is cooperation with the peace process. As a member of the UN, Israel is obligated to follow resolutions passed by the world body (though it has had no trouble ignoring these resolutions in the past), but Hezbollah has no such obligation. Its participation in the Lebanese government appears to have put some pressure on Hezbollah's leaders to agree to the ceasefire. I will say again that time will tell what happens next. The Lebanese believe that nothing will really change - this will result in peace talks, which will fail, and then everything will return to the status quo. And it is easy to see how that could happen, how nothing really changed beyond the presense of troops in southern Lebanon, creating a buffer zone. But really, what does this do? The Palestinians are still a people without a homeland, there is still a rift within the Middle East that no one seems capable of overcoming, and people will still die in senseless violence. This feels like a chess game where the pieces only move from side to side in defensive moves, and not forward for any real gain.

Articles of Note

I have not updated in a very long time, many apologies. I have been trying to keep up with events, and I find myself increasingly frustrated with the UN. Personally, I find no other event in the world nearly as important as resolving this conflict, though I know that in the broad scope of things there are several other issues also needing resolution. After that brief apology for the UN, I will not begin my little diatribe: what is taking so long!!! Waiting for a resolution that both sides love will only result in further deaths, and I think we all know that there are very few things in the world that the U.S. and France can agree on, so why don't we just vote and end the violence! Once again, people are left to die while the politicians bicker. That is really what this all comes down to in my view. I thought the UN was supposed to be the organization prepared to step into situations like this; instead, we are left with a bureaucratic mess that can debate the horrors taking place in places such as Lebanon or the Sudan or a dozen other places, but can't do anything real. This is horribly frustrating. The idealist in me wants to believe that the UN does some good. I am now starting to believe that it is a lost cause in and of itself.

On to other things. I was sent this interesting article from The Economist regarding the Suez Crisis. It is worth reading as it describes how this crisis changed international relations, specifically the US-British relationship. Over the past few years I have found myself wondering why the Brits always fall in behind the United States and disregard Europe, and according to this piece, the key is in the roles the United States and the European powers played during the Suez Crisis. I won't write more on this topic because The Economist does a far better job than I could.

The New York Times published a very clear analysis of Hezbollah and its organizational structure. I think it is clear now that Hezbollah is very well organized, but this article leads me to believe that without some kind of external intervention (ahem, UN) this conflict could continue for a long time. Hezbollah has established a command structure that allows individual units to operate independently of central command. I believe our perception of organizations like Hezbollah looks something like a bunch of crazies hiding in a cave in the hills, plotting outlandish schemes to strike at the West for inexplicable reasons. I think it is more sobering (and more frightening) to realize that these organizations have training methodologies and systems of command comparable to conventional militaries. I think it is likely that Hezbollah receives advise from Syria and Iran, though I have read in numerous sources that we still are unsure as to how much influence Iran and Syria have over Hezbollah. The two countries may fund Hezbollah, but my feeling is that this is controlled by Lebanese leaders who set the tactics for the group.

I mentioned earlier the special relationship between Britain and the United States. This relationship is so special, that when a plane full of weapons en route from the US to Israel needs a place to refuel, it stops in the UK. Now, I don't think this has made much of a blip on the US media, but this has caused an uproar in the UK. Today, an MP (Member of Parliament) resigned his position in the defense council in protest over this issue. We are not talking about one or two planes, we are talking about a few planes a week stopping at an airport near Glasgow and then continuing to Israel. Where do you think those weapons then go?! No one is innocent in this crisis, no one should claim that this is just a problem that is "over there" far away from us. We are funding this conflict, we are actively supporting the continued violence. Though I am outraged, I am also frustrated at my lack of a clear understanding of what to do. I was raised to believe that every voice counts, your opinion matters, and that the beauty of democracy is that the government is supposed to listen to its citizens. How can we make our voices heard in a time like this, when it seems that even a small criticism of the government is labeled unpatriotic?
But I digress...